March is Here - Can Michigan Make a Run in the NCAA Tournament?

Hard to believe, but it's already that time of year. With the Big Ten completing its regular season Sunday night, it's time to examine Michigan's chances in March. After struggling to start the Big Ten season, characterized by lackluster defense and inconsistencies from its stars Derrick Walton Jr and Zak Irvin, the Wolverines finished the Big Ten slate on a tear, going 6-2 over its final eight games with wins over Indiana (x2), Michigan State, Wisconsin, and Purdue. But in a supposed down year for the Big Ten, will their success translate to the NCAA tournament?

Depending on the matchup, absolutely. Led by a sensational stretch from Michigan's 2nd team all Big Ten point guard Derrick Walton Jr, Michigan ascended to the sixth most efficient offensive attack in the nation, according to Kenpom.com (net rating offensively - 121.0). While they finished inside the top 100 in defensive efficiency, problems still exist on that end of the court. However, there has been a marked improvement, predicated on turnover creation from its backcourt.

                 Derrick Walton Jr. has been on fire since the late January (Bryan Fuller)

Back to the offense. Led by a balanced scoring attack, Michigan possesses six true scoring options, engrossing every position on the floor. Under John Beilein, Michigan has performed strongly in the NCAA tournament, as they promote matchup problems and offensive movement that teams outside of the Big Ten are simply not used to facing. The mantra under Beilein has been "live by the three, die by the three." While Michigan has one of the highest team 3-point percentages in the nation, their offensive attack is so much more complex. Due to Walton's resurgence on two-point shooting (48%), and the emergence of formidable big men in Moritz Wagner and D.J. Wilson, Michigan can survive even on an off-shooting night.

Why is Michigan so difficult to guard? Simply, all five positions on the floor can shoot the ball. Recently, Michigan has benefitted from a high-ball screen offense led by Walton Jr. When Wagner or Wilson set a high-ball screen for Walton, the threat of popping out and shooting or rolling makes the defense indecisive. Big men have been switching on Walton, allowing him to create off the dribble. Michigan spreads the floor as well as any offense in the nation, which makes them so incredibly dangerous.

So, what are the likely seeding scenarios? Currently, Michigan is slotted around the 8/9 line, which presents a matchup with a number one seed in the second round of the tournament, assuming a first round win. While playing a number one seed so early is not ideal, this Wolverine team is well equipped as an upset threat. This year, Michigan has shown a tendency to play up, or down, to the competition level. Blowout wins against SMU, Michigan State, and Purdue show that Michigan can get hot against elite talent.

The NCAA tournament comes down to matchups, and how teams can exploit weaknesses of their opponent. While questions have arisen about John Beilein's recruiting prowess and in-game coaching decisions, his preparation and attention to detail have led to extremely successful tournament appearances for his Michigan teams (including a National Championship game appearance and an Elite 8).

Big Ten Football 2016 - East Division Preview

When Jim Harbaugh agreed to replace Brady Hoke as the Head Coach of the University of Michigan, many wondered (myself included) how long it would take him to turnaround the winningest (but struggling for the better part of a decade) football program in the country. Fast forward 18 months, Harbaugh and Michigan are coming off a 10-win season and are eyeing the College Football Playoff.

However, standing in Michigan's way is what could be the deepest division in any conference in the nation. Michigan State, coming off its second Big Ten title in the last 3 years, looks formidable, despite losing the most celebrated Quarterback in school history, Connor Cook. Ohio State and Urban Meyer are looking to reload after losing 16 (!!) starters, 8 on offense and 8 on defense. But they do return starting Quarterback and former Big Ten Offensive Player of the Year, J.T. Barrett.

Let's dive in to some of the biggest questions facing the Big Ten's stronger division.

1) Can Michigan adequately replace Jake Rudock at Quarterback?

Rudock used his 5th year of eligibility in Ann Arbor, after being "benched" before his 5th year even began in Iowa City. After a slow start, and under tutelage from Harbaugh, he set the Michigan record for completion percentage in a season (64%), became only the second Michigan QB ever to throw for 3,000 yards in a season, and finished second all time in passing years in a single season (3,017). Fast forward and Michigan is looking at a two-horse race in its starting QB competition. Despite not being named the starter out of spring practice, many expect Houston transfer John O'Korn to take the reins at QB. Tall, athletic, and strong-armed, O'Korn was the American Athletic Conference's Offensive Freshman of the Year in 2013. After falling out of favor with the offensive system in Houston, O'Korn is looking for a fresh start in Ann Arbor. His competition is Redshirt Junior Wilton Speight, who has limited game experience as a Wolverine. He's shown a steady hand in practice, and is seen as the type of player who will limit mistakes. With Michigan's elite defense, the coaches might want to turn to a player who will allow the running game and defense to carry the squad. A starter might not be named until opening day.

Michigan Quarterback John O'Korn

Photo Credit - Zimbio.com

2) Can Michigan State replace the offensive firepower they lost to the NFL?

Connor Cook was the most successful and celebrated QB to ever play in East Lansing, winning a Rose Bowl, a Cotton Bowl, and two Big Ten Championships. Losing him would be a blow to any team, and with the loss of stud receiver Aaron Burbridge and All Big Ten Offensive Lineman Jack Allen, the Spartans will have to replace key pieces at many different spots. Dial in Tyler O'Connor. After leading the Spartans to their stunning victory in Columbus last November, he does have big game experience and should be ready for the new challenge as the starting QB of a top program. Only time will tell, but despite the tall task of following up a tremendous QB, he should be ready to make Michigan State a contender in the Big Ten East.

Michigan State Quarterback Tyler O'Connor

Photo Credit - Mlive.com

3) Are James Franklin and Penn State ready to have a breakout season in Happy Valley?

After two underwhelming seasons to start his Penn State career, James Franklin is already on the hot seat. After losing his star Quarterback, who never was able to reach his full potential in Happy Valley due to atrocious offensive line play, Franklin will be feeling the pressure to produce this year. With Michigan, Michigan State, and Ohio State all on the schedule, that might be a pipe dream. One thing Franklin has done well is recruit. After another top 10 class, with many offensive lineman and skill position players coming to campus, the future could be bright. But Franklin's limitations as a coach are now taking over as major public opinion, despite his prowess as a recruiter. He needs to win and soon, because the once-proud program is not content being the 4th best program in their own division.

Penn State Head Coach James Franklin

Photo Credit - OnwardState.com

Big Ten Football 2016 - West Division Preview

After an impressive bounce-back season in 2015, the reigning-champion Iowa Hawkeyes once again look like the team to beat in the Big Ten's West Division. While the East Division is stronger top to bottom, there are intriguing story lines that should make the 2016 race for the Big Ten West title interesting to watch.

Top Storylines

1) Can Iowa regain its 2015 pre-Rose Bowl form?

Being only minutes away from a Big Ten title in Indianapolis, Iowa figured to pose a threat to Stanford in the Rose Bowl. All-American Stanford Running Back Christian McCaffrey wouldn't let that happen, and the embarrassing performance on both sides of the ball by the Hawkeyes stymied any sort of momentum Iowa hoped to carry into 2016. Now, minus All-Big Ten guard Austin Blythe and stud defensive end Nate Meier, senior Quarterback CJ Bathard and All-American Cornerback Desmond King hope to lead the Hawkeyes to Indianapolis once again. Iowa draws fellow West Division rivals Nebraska and Wisconsin at home. Michigan also makes an appearance, for the first time since 2013, in Iowa City. Taking care of Nebraska and Wisconsin at home should be enough for Iowa to reclaim the West title.

                    Iowa Cornerback Desmond King                  

 Picture - Hawk Central

2) What should we expect from Lovie Smith in his first season in Champaign?

In 2001, Illinois Quarterback Kurt Kittner (remember that name?) led the Fighting Illini to a surprising Big Ten Championship and Sugar Bowl berth (eventually blown out, but still). Since that Big Ten Title, Illinois' one relevant season ended in a Rose Bowl trouncing at the hands of Pete Carroll's USC Trojans (2008). After the Tim Beckmann era ended rather controversially (with accusations of mistreatment by injured players), Bill Cubit was unable to turn the program around during his short time at the helm, so boosters turned to universally-respected, NFL veteran Lovie Smith. Smith hopes to bring his brand of conservative, disciplined (and boring) football to Champaign. While we shouldn't expect a Big Ten Title out of the Illini anytime soon, Illinois does return 5th year senior Quarterback Wes Lunt, who has shown enough big-play capability in the past to instill some newfound optimism in Champaign. Expect the steadying hand of Smith to pay dividends this year, and more so down the road.

                               Illinois Quarterback Wes Lunt                              

Picture - Columbus Dispatch

3) Will Nebraska use its bowl game victory to launch itself forward in Mike Riley's second year in Lincoln?

After an opening weekend Hail Mary loss to BYU at home, the game became a microcosm of Mike Riley's first year at the helm of Nebraska Football. Close losses to Miami, Illinois, Wisconsin, and Northwestern (all by 3 points or less) preceded a dramatic, controversial victory over Michigan State that showed the game-changing potential of Quarterback Tommy Armstrong (320 yards, 2 TD's). With Armstrong returning for his senior year, along with senior receiver and top weapon Jordan Westerkamp (school record 65 receptions in 2015), Nebraska hopes to use an early season showdown with Oregon to catapult itself back into college football relevance. The three toughest games are all on the road (@Ohio State, @Iowa, @Wisconsin), but the Cornhuskers do avoid both Michigan State and Michigan. Winning two of three in that gauntlet of road games could give the Huskers a chance to win the Big Ten West Title, assuming they take care of business elsewhere.

Video of The Day 2/23

Trae Waynes solidified his spot as the top CB prospect in the upcoming draft by posting the fastest 40 time of any defensive back at 4.31. He made himself a lot of money today by not only ensuring himself as a first round pick but also a quick 100k paycheck from Adidas for running the fastest 40 in their shoes.

NFL Draft Prediction: 13th Overall by the Saints

Recap: Michigan 64 - Ohio State 57

In the midst of a five game losing streak, its longest since 2011, the Michigan Wolverines welcomed the 24th ranked Ohio State Buckeyes to the Crisler Center this past Sunday. A season ravaged by early NBA entries and injuries has forced John Beilein to play Michigan's freshman and walk-ons big minutes. While they've played hard and have been competitive against the Big Ten's best, they seem to be running out of gas. However, Sunday, the Wolverines controlled a game from start to finish against one of the Big Ten's best teams.

   

Sophomore shooting guard Zak Irvin pumps up the crowd (Photo from The Detroit Free Press)

First Half

Michigan started the first half quickly, seizing control of the game from the outset. Zak Irvin started hot for the Wolverines, pouring in a quick eight points to jump-start the Wolverine offense. They would not relent for the entirety of the first half, as Irvin added four key assists in the first frame, as he showed off his improved court vision by finding Michigan's big men off of pick and roll plays numerous times. Spike Albrecht, playing with a hip injury that will require surgery in the offseason, played a gritty 38 minutes, and hit two big three pointers late in the 1st half to stretch the Michigan lead. Ohio State freshman and sure-fire NBA lottery pick, D'Angelo Russell, struggled to get open looks against Michigan's changing defenses, as they switched between primarily man-to-man and a 2-3 zone that prevented Russell from penetrating and making plays inside the paint. Michigan went to the locker room in full control, up by a surprising 16 points.

Second Half

Ohio State dominated the first ten minutes of the second half, going on a 14-0 run at one point to cut the Michigan lead to three, 49-46. The run was jump started by Russell, who managed to beat his man off the dribble time after time, getting into the lane with relative ease, while also pouring in a couple of triples. However, Zak Irvin hit another huge triple to extend the Wolverine lead to six, and Michigan would never look back. Spike Albrecht played another great half of basketball, finishing with 16 points, 5 assists, and zero turnovers. Ohio State exclusively ran a full-court man-to-man pressure defense in the 2nd half, designed to force the ball handler into feeding the ball towards the sides of the court where Ohio State could unleash their highly effective trapping defense. Despite the intense pressure all afternoon, Albrecht was flawless at beating the pressure and getting into the half-court to initiate Michigan's offense. Other big contributors were the aforementioned Irvin, who stuffed the stat sheet with 15 points (3 triples), 7 rebounds, and 4 assists, and freshmen Ricky Doyle and Kam Chatman, who combined for 14 points and 8 rebounds.

State of the Current Team

Sitting at 14-13 (7-8 in the Big Ten), Michigan will almost certainly miss its first NCAA tournament since the 2010 season. Despite the obvious disappointment, the fact that Michigan has stayed above .500 and is competitive in almost every game despite being forced to play five freshman and two walk-ons significant minutes speaks volumes to the coaching abilities of John Beilein and his fantastic staff. Injuries to Derrick Walton III and Caris LeVert certainly derailed any hopes of a successful season, but pending their return next year (Walton, definitely, LeVert is more of a toss-up), this team can be extremely dangerous in the Big Ten title race. Add in transfer Duncan Robinson, who reportedly could be the best Michigan shooter Beilein has ever had (including Nik Stauskas, yes), and Michigan could be a dark horse to make some noise in the NCAA tournament next year.

As always, Go Blue!

What's wrong with Michigan Basketball?

Tuesday night in Columbus figured to be a raucous environment. Ohio State, coming off a close loss to Indiana last weekend, and in desperate need of a victory, would be ready to roll. Michigan, on the other hand, was in the midst of a two game win streak over the last-place teams in the Big Ten, Penn State and Minnesota. Many were hoping Michigan had turned the proverbial "corner," but as we saw in OSU's drubbing of the Wolverines last night, that's not the case. Here are a few reasons why Michigan continues to struggle:

                                       Michigan Freshman Center Ricky Doyle

1) Michigan is once again one of the youngest teams in the nation. The starting rotation consists of three underclassmen, with four more playing meaningful minutes off the bench. John Beilein has a history (especially at Michigan) of winning with players that are lightly or under-recruited coming out of high school (Zack Novak, Stu Douglass, Trey Burke, Jordan Morgan, and Nik Stauskas come to mind). However, the new freshman class of six has developed at a slower pace than previous classes. Forward Kam Chatman, a consensus top-30 national prospect out of high school, has struggled to adjust to the speed and physicality of the college game. Aubrey Dawkins, while providing key shooting off the bench, is a one-dimensial player, and teams will start to adjust to his offensive tendencies (outside shooting, and more outside shooting). Ricky Doyle has been a bright spot, becoming Michigan's most effective big man. Despite his success, he still lacks rebounding toughness and an ability to finish around the hoop against contact. In time, these three can be key contributors, as well as the other three freshman, but patience is key.

2) Losing five starters early to the NBA draft has drastically set Michigan back. Back-to-back Big Ten players of the year, Trey Burke and Nik Stauskas, left for the NBA draft as sophomores, as did Mitch McGary and Glenn Robinson III. Tim Hardaway also bolted following the 2013 Final Four with a year of eligibility remaining. NCAA tournament success that Michigan fans have been blessed with the last two years has suddenly become the bar for success for this program, and realistically (unless you're Kentucky or Duke) cannot be repeated when you lose such integral parts of the program early to the NBA.

3) Despite solid freshman seasons, Zak Irvin and Derrick Walton Jr. have failed to take the necessary leaps forward to be able to carry this team through its youth struggles. Irvin, while being a key scorer for this Michigan team, has shown to be one of the streakiest shooters Michigan has had in recent memory. When shots aren't falling, we also see defensive lapses and careless turnovers, which led to a benching in the second half by Beilein in last night's game. Walton Jr. has dealt with a recurring toe injury, and looks to be a shell of the player we saw in high school and throughout last year. He had a fantastic game on Saturday against Minnesota, but was almost invisible last night. When healthy, I think he has the potential to be the Big Ten's best point guard, but he needs to get healthy and gain confidence back in his shot and finishing ability around the hoop.

4) Last but not least, Caris LeVert. Projected by many, including ESPN, as a preseason first team All-American, LeVert has not lived up to the hype. A summer injury to his foot forced him to miss eight weeks of crucial development time this summer, and it certainly is showing on the court. Streaky shooting, questionable decision making (turnovers!), and at times, horrendous defense have characterized his junior season. The most troubling of those three is the lack of intensity and focus he shows at times on the defensive end, which could be an issue of effort. At a lanky 6'6", he is the primary defender Michigan uses to defend the opposition's best wing or 2 guard. He has the talent and quickness, but the focus needs to be there 100% of the time for Michigan to at least be a decent defensive team.

These issues have so far led Michigan to a mediocre 10-7 record, and at this point, a berth to the NCAA tournament looks unlikely. Patience will be key with this team, and they will win their fair share of games, but as we saw last night, we can't expect consistency on a nightly basis from such a young group.

Michigan Basketball Preview 2014-15

Contrary to popular belief, Michigan still has teams that are competitive in sports! Coming off back-to-back elite seasons (a Final Four appearance followed by a heartbreaking Elite 8 loss), Michigan will once again be one of the youngest teams in the country. Gone are All-American Nik Stauskas, elite athlete Glenn Robinson III, and versatile, yet oft-injured big man Mitch McGary. It's not all doom and gloom in Ann Arbor, however. Solid recruiting and fantastic player development has Michigan in a position to surprise again. Michigan has the looks of an elite offensive squad (not surprising during Beilein's tenure), and a questionable squad on the defensive end (also not surprising). Let's take a look at the returning players and incoming freshman. I'll provide in-depth detail at Michigan's rotation in the following paragraphs.

                                                     Junior Guard Caris LeVert

Point Guard

Sophomore Derrick Walton Jr, Detroit, MI: Coming off a solid, yet inconsistent freshman campaign, Walton looks to take the biggest jump forward of any Wolverine. He was a solid catalyst for the offense, averaging almost 3 assists per game and shooting 40% from the 3-point line. A recurring problem, acknowledged by head coach John Beilein, was his lack of aggression and the willingness to "take over" games. As Walton matures, I look for him to be more of a leader on offense, and be willing to shoot first, then pass, more often. If he takes the next step, the ceiling for this Michigan team rises exponentially.

Junior Spike Albrecht, Crown Point, IN: Perhaps infamous for his first half performance in the 2013 National Championship game against Louisville, Albrecht remains a solid backup to Walton, as he is capable of knocking down shots and being a solid floor leader when called upon. Look for 10-15 minutes a game from Albrecht, both at the point guard spot and the 2 guard spot, as Michigan often utilizes a two-point guard system when facing heavy pressure defenses (VCU, anyone?). Albrecht is rock solid and should provide high-quality minutes and low turnover numbers in his third season.

Shooting Guard

Junior Caris LeVert, Columbus, OH: A preseason All-American and 2015 projected lottery pick, LeVert will most likely shoulder the offensive load for Michigan this year. An improved perimeter defender a year ago, LeVert seemingly came out of nowhere to average 14 points per game for a loaded Michigan offensive attack. With the ability to knock down perimeter shots, as well as get to the basket at will, LeVert is a complete offensive player. Add in an extra 15 pounds he gained this offseason, and you have a player who will not be afraid to get physical down low. I'm expecting big things from LeVert, and I would be surprised if he wasn't a first team All Big Ten performer by the end of the season.

Shooting Guard/Small Forward

Freshmen Muhammed Ali Abdur-Rahkman (Allentown, PA)/Aubrey Dawkins (Palo Alto, CA): Two lightly recruited players coming out of high school, these two young studs should actually play valuable minutes in a guard-heavy Michigan lineup this year. Abdur-Rahkman is an older freshman (20 years old) and is comfortable with the ball in his hands, as he showed on Michigan's 4-game Italy exhibition tour. He reached the rim at will, often getting fouled and getting to the free throw line. Dawkins, on the other hand, is a freak athlete capable of knocking down perimeter shots at a high rate. He has the size and wing span to be an elite defender, as well, and I look for both of these freshman to play around 10-15 minutes a game at either the 2 or 3 spots.

Small Forward

Sophomore Zak Irvin, Fishers, IN: Along with LeVert, Irvin looks to shoulder the offensive load for the Wolverines in the upcoming season. Coming off a freshman season shooting almost exclusively three-pointers, Irvin has tirelessly worked with Assistant Coach LaVall Jordan this offseason in his ball-handling and rim attacking. He led Michigan in scoring on the Italy trip, and with his massive size (almost 6'7") and wide wing span, he is a mismatch problem on the outside. If utilized correctly, he could lead Michigan in scoring and three point shooting. Look for a big year from Irvin.

Small Forward/Power Forward

Freshmen Kameron Chatman, Portland OR: Chatman could truly be the key to Michigan being great this year, as he is perhaps the most versatile big man John Beilein has had at his disposal during his Michigan tenure. Chatman can play either of the 3 guard/wing positions, despite his size. He is a fantastic ball handler, can score in the paint, and can knock down the outside shot. Look for Michigan to use him primarily at the 3/4 positions. I expect him to start, as well.

Power Forward

Redshirt Freshman Mark Donnal, Monclova, OH: Coming off a necessary redshirt year that was fueled by his need to put on good weight, Donnal figures to be a large part of the rotation in the coming year. Perhaps Beilein's first stretch four with an outside-shooting ability in Ann Arbor, Donnal can also play with his back to the basket. An impressive offensive repertoire is balanced out but his small size, however, and has struggled in practice against larger players. Proper positioning and technique will allow him to play adequate defense, but this could be a concern for Michigan moving forward.

Freshman D.J. Wilson, Sacramento, CA: Another stretch four, the highly touted freshman comes to Ann Arbor possessing a wide offensive skill set. He is fantastic around the basket and has good range that stretches out to 18-20 feet. Coming off a hand injury that saw him miss all 4 games of Michigan's Italy trip, Wilson is healthy for fall practice, and should earn a solid rotation spot given his offensive skills. However, like Donnal, his skinny stature will need work for the physical Big Ten schedule he will face for the first time. 

Center

Freshmen Ricky Doyle, Cape Coral, FL: Another true freshman (young squad, I know), Doyle comes to Ann Arbor with a more ready-to-play body than most. At a solid 250 pounds, and the only true center on the Wolverines roster, look for him to get the starting nod at the 5 spot, being spelled by Donnal on occasion. Doyle is solid with both hands around the rim and is a ferocious rebounder, which will be key for Michigan, a team that has struggled with defensive rebounding since Beilein's arrival (small teams = bad rebounding). Doyle will go through the freshman bumps, of course, but he is ready to be  key contributor on a solid team.