March is Here - Can Michigan Make a Run in the NCAA Tournament?

Hard to believe, but it's already that time of year. With the Big Ten completing its regular season Sunday night, it's time to examine Michigan's chances in March. After struggling to start the Big Ten season, characterized by lackluster defense and inconsistencies from its stars Derrick Walton Jr and Zak Irvin, the Wolverines finished the Big Ten slate on a tear, going 6-2 over its final eight games with wins over Indiana (x2), Michigan State, Wisconsin, and Purdue. But in a supposed down year for the Big Ten, will their success translate to the NCAA tournament?

Depending on the matchup, absolutely. Led by a sensational stretch from Michigan's 2nd team all Big Ten point guard Derrick Walton Jr, Michigan ascended to the sixth most efficient offensive attack in the nation, according to Kenpom.com (net rating offensively - 121.0). While they finished inside the top 100 in defensive efficiency, problems still exist on that end of the court. However, there has been a marked improvement, predicated on turnover creation from its backcourt.

                 Derrick Walton Jr. has been on fire since the late January (Bryan Fuller)

Back to the offense. Led by a balanced scoring attack, Michigan possesses six true scoring options, engrossing every position on the floor. Under John Beilein, Michigan has performed strongly in the NCAA tournament, as they promote matchup problems and offensive movement that teams outside of the Big Ten are simply not used to facing. The mantra under Beilein has been "live by the three, die by the three." While Michigan has one of the highest team 3-point percentages in the nation, their offensive attack is so much more complex. Due to Walton's resurgence on two-point shooting (48%), and the emergence of formidable big men in Moritz Wagner and D.J. Wilson, Michigan can survive even on an off-shooting night.

Why is Michigan so difficult to guard? Simply, all five positions on the floor can shoot the ball. Recently, Michigan has benefitted from a high-ball screen offense led by Walton Jr. When Wagner or Wilson set a high-ball screen for Walton, the threat of popping out and shooting or rolling makes the defense indecisive. Big men have been switching on Walton, allowing him to create off the dribble. Michigan spreads the floor as well as any offense in the nation, which makes them so incredibly dangerous.

So, what are the likely seeding scenarios? Currently, Michigan is slotted around the 8/9 line, which presents a matchup with a number one seed in the second round of the tournament, assuming a first round win. While playing a number one seed so early is not ideal, this Wolverine team is well equipped as an upset threat. This year, Michigan has shown a tendency to play up, or down, to the competition level. Blowout wins against SMU, Michigan State, and Purdue show that Michigan can get hot against elite talent.

The NCAA tournament comes down to matchups, and how teams can exploit weaknesses of their opponent. While questions have arisen about John Beilein's recruiting prowess and in-game coaching decisions, his preparation and attention to detail have led to extremely successful tournament appearances for his Michigan teams (including a National Championship game appearance and an Elite 8).