Tuesday, March 11, 2014

The Kate Upton Effect

        For those of you that don't keep up to date with your E! News, it has been made apparent that Justin Verlander and Kate Upton are going steady once again. I'm not one to obsess over celebrity relationships, but when it comes to our ace pitcher, who we are paying $202 million for the next seven years, it becomes something I can obsess over. I know, me obsessing over sports is shocking.

JV and Kate shown getting cozy at a Super Bowl pre party (h/t Getty Images)

        If you are here to read all the juicy details on their re-kindled love, you have arrived at the wrong blog. The only thing we are concerned with is JV's performance on the hill. We are going to analyze how dating the Michigan born supermodel effect JV's pitching the first time around.

        The rumors that of these two dating first began in July of 2012 and their relationship continued until the offseason when the wheels fell off. Let's take a look at Verlander's starts in that time period.


       It's not hard to tell that Verlander was still in the "I'm trying to impress the most prodigious supermodel in the world" phase in his first three starts as he was flat out dominant. He then moved into the "Oh wait, she's only 20 and I'm just as famous" stage, became complacent and went 1-2 with a underwhelming 3.92 ERA. The third phase was clearly "We are trying to win the division, stop worrying about who are dating" and Verlander kicked it up a notch going 5-1 with 1.92 ERA down the stretch. Take the one loss away and Verlander's ERA was .75.
       Hard to argue with a 9-3 record, a 2.59 ERA while striking out 118 batters. Although, that might just be JV doing what he always does. To really breakdown the effect Upton had on him, we need to look at what he did in years past in those months, along with last years numbers.  In 2011, Verlander went 13-2, with a 2.50 ERA and 130 strikeouts. 2013, he was 5-7 with a 2.92 ERA and 103 K's. The Post Upton numbers don't take a drastic dip by any means but there is definitely a noticeable difference. The 5-7 record sticks out the most and really does smell like P.U. Can't stand the thought of the Tigers going 5-7 in 12 decisions from their self-proclaimed ace. Verlander had five no decisions in those months as well that were all losses for the Tigers. That means they were 5-12 with Verlander on the hill from July-September last year, including losing 9 of his last 10 starts. Clearly, some competitive edge was missing from Verlander's starts. He didn't seem to have the same edge on the mound. Could this have been attributed to Verlander spending late nights trying to improve his dating game? We may never know, but the numbers sure do indicate this as a viable option.

        We have looked at the regular season effects, but Tiger's fans have reached a point where it's "World Series or Bust". I don't think you will find a single fan that cares more about a fourth straight AL Central title than a deep postseason run. With that being said, Verlander's postseason numbers while dating Upton are the most important numbers to analyze.



2012 Postseason Numbers:



It looks like this relationship is going to be completely fine until we reach the World Series, which we can all agree is the main goal for the 2014 Detroit Tigers. So, Justin, when we reach the end of October take Kate out to a nice dinner at Forest Grill (Justin's favorite date spot according to my inside sources, in case all you JV groupies were wondering), enjoy the night, pick up the tab (let's be honest you can afford it), and then let her down easy. I'll even give you a script, "Listen, babe, it's been real, but I need to win a World Series. More importantly, this city needs a World Series. You understand, right?" I can't imagine any scenario where that would go over poorly. She was born in Michigan, she will understand the urgency. 

P.S. Stick to pitching JV...





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