In perhaps one of the most wide-open NCAA tournaments in recent memory, any of the top teams entering the tournament can make a run to cut down the nets in Dallas. Over the next few days, and hopefully weeks, I'll preview each matchup of Michigan's NCAA tournament run. Today, we take a look at the #15 seed, the Wofford Terriers.
The Basics
Wofford enters the NCAA tournament after winning the Southern Conference tournament. With an overall record of 20-12 (11-5 in conference), Wofford comes into the tourney playing strong basketball. Coupled with a nine-game win streak during conference play, they advanced through their conference tournament with blowouts until the championship game, where they won a grind-it-out matchup with Western Carolina.
The Players
Wofford is led by their strong scoring backcourt of junior Karl Cochran (15.7 PPG) and sophomore Spencer Collins (12.8 PPG). The offense runs entirely through these two, as they lead the team in scoring, shot attempts, and possession usage. The Terriers are not a particularly large team, as their starters range from 6'1" to 6'8", which is a large positive for Michigan, who is still absent of a large post presence due to Mitch McGary's injury.
The Metrics
Kenpom.com, my favorite basketball statistic website, focuses on teams and their efficiency ratings. After determining a team's offensive and defensive efficiency, rankings are compiled that include every Division 1 team. Wofford comes in to the NCAA tournament ranking 235th offensively and 127th defensively. They score, on average 67.7 points per game and give up 62.4 points per game, which surprisingly ranks 23rd in the nation, much better than their overall defensive efficiency rating. The disparity in these rankings is due to their propensity to play at a slower pace. They don't give up many points per game, but they give up a large number of points per possession, leading to a poor overall rating.
The Matchup
According to different scouting reports I've read, Wofford runs both man-to-man defensive sets, as well as mixing in a 2-3 zone rather often. Michigan usually sees more man-to-man, and should have no trouble running their motion sets against a small defensive lineup. They should also be able to adjust to a 2-3 easily, as the national semifinal against Syracuse (in last year's Final Four) comes to mind. Michigan has perhaps the best trio of wing players in the nation, that can shoot over the top of the zone with their length (Nik Stauskas, Caris LeVert, and Glenn Robinson III all measure taller than 6'6") and also drive the hoop with great efficiency. Michigan should have no trouble scoring offensively against an average defense, as Michigan ranks 3rd in the nation in offensive efficiency according to Kenpom.com. Defensively, Michigan should be okay on the defensive glass with Wofford's lack of a true big man. Expect the usual man to man defense from the Wolverines, with Beilein's patented 1-3-1 zone forcing an occasional turnover.
The Result
Michigan should not have trouble in this matchup with an average mid-major team, likely just ecstatic they are in the tournament. Expect big performances from Michigan's wings in a blowout.
As always, Go Blue!
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